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Compulsive gamblers and tarot card readers are also systematic. Thinking that systematic implies insightful is deeply flawed.

(Disappointed by the downvotes... I'm not trying to be pithy.)



That it is systematic implies you can use it to generate insights into things that are causally linked. In the case of tarot cards, that's maybe a little about the traditions it grew out of but not a lot about the present or future. In this case, it's about the reasoning and assumptions you are using in trying to work out whether the policy is a good idea. This is only indirectly tied to the question of whether the policy is in fact a good idea. Insights about that need support of, y'know, evidence. But this kind of thing can totally be useful for understanding what questions need to be asked.

Incidentally, I am not convinced that tarot cards cannot be useful at generating insights - privileging random hypotheses and reconsidering your situation could be a useful means of reducing the impact of hypotheses you're privileging for other reasons. Everything must still be evaluated in light of actual evidence, though, of course, before conclusions are drawn.


That it is systematic implies you can use it to generate insights into things that are causally linked.

Only if the model is accurate. If (as in the case of tarot reading and failed gambling) you have a system that doesn't correspond to the world you will draw conclusions that are detailed and reproducible but not insightful of the world. Inaccurate models are only misleading, not vaguely insightful.


Systematic interaction with a model can be used to learn things about the model whether or not the model is accurate. Otherwise we are in agreement, I think.




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