Why can't you model a happier society, reduced prison costs, etc?
Lets focus on the latter. How many people commit crimes due to lack of a Basic Income? (If you don't know precisely, choose a probability distribution that includes all values you find plausible. For example, choose a uniform distribution on [0, # of criminals/year].)
How much do each of these criminals cost society? (If you don't know precisely, choose a probability distribution that includes all values you find plausible.)
Multiply the former by the latter and subtract it from the result. Rerun the simulation. Maybe the result will change a lot, maybe it won't change much at all. I don't know what will happen, but the simulation will tell you what could happen.
Lets focus on the latter. How many people commit crimes due to lack of a Basic Income? (If you don't know precisely, choose a probability distribution that includes all values you find plausible. For example, choose a uniform distribution on [0, # of criminals/year].)
How much do each of these criminals cost society? (If you don't know precisely, choose a probability distribution that includes all values you find plausible.)
Multiply the former by the latter and subtract it from the result. Rerun the simulation. Maybe the result will change a lot, maybe it won't change much at all. I don't know what will happen, but the simulation will tell you what could happen.