I'm too much of a layperson in statistics and economics to tell, at this early in the morning without coffee, how much of this is eloquent backtracking BS:
> So do where does this leave matters on debt and growth? Do Herndon et al. get dramatically different results on the relatively short post war sample they focus on? Not really. They, too, find lower growth associated with periods when debt is over 90% (they find 0-30 debt/GDP , 4.2% growth; 30-60, 3.1 %; 60-90, 3.2%,; over 90, 2.2%. Put differently, growth at high debt levels is a little more than half of the growth rate at the lowest levels of debt. They ignore the fact that these results are close to what we get in our Table 1 of our AER paper they critique, and not far from the median results in Figure 2 despite its coding error. And they are not very different from what we report in our 2012 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper with Vincent Reinhart—where the average is 2.4% for high debt versus 3.5% for below 90%
Related question: From what I understand, all the study is doing is that it's saying on an average countries with high debt / GDP have a slightly negative growth rate. But isn't that just one data point and not a justification for austerity itself?
Note the phrase "associated" in the excerpt:
"They, too, find lower growth associated with periods when debt is over 90%"
This episode emphasizes that the original study found no causality; one would expect a country with low growth to need to rely more on debt and less on tax revenues to fund government, especially if expenditures were planned based on a higher-growth scenario.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2013/04/17/reinhart-rogoff-ad...
I'm too much of a layperson in statistics and economics to tell, at this early in the morning without coffee, how much of this is eloquent backtracking BS:
> So do where does this leave matters on debt and growth? Do Herndon et al. get dramatically different results on the relatively short post war sample they focus on? Not really. They, too, find lower growth associated with periods when debt is over 90% (they find 0-30 debt/GDP , 4.2% growth; 30-60, 3.1 %; 60-90, 3.2%,; over 90, 2.2%. Put differently, growth at high debt levels is a little more than half of the growth rate at the lowest levels of debt. They ignore the fact that these results are close to what we get in our Table 1 of our AER paper they critique, and not far from the median results in Figure 2 despite its coding error. And they are not very different from what we report in our 2012 Journal of Economic Perspectives paper with Vincent Reinhart—where the average is 2.4% for high debt versus 3.5% for below 90%