To be fair the German's lost the war to two separate things, neither of which was due to anything that happened on the battlefield directly.
Hitler's move to bomb cities in Britian cost them London. His decision to change his objectives half way through the Russian campaign cost them Moscow (although you could argue invading Russia at all was dumb, the German army was still poised to overcome this, amazingly.
Hitler may have been on the verge of breaking the RAF before switching to bombing cities, but a land invasion is quite another thing entirely, and can't be assumed to have succeeded.
Hitler's move to bomb cities in Britian cost them London. His decision to change his objectives half way through the Russian campaign cost them Moscow (although you could argue invading Russia at all was dumb, the German army was still poised to overcome this, amazingly.
As for Japan, I think your point stands.