What counts is if the populations are willing to engage in conflict or not; manufacturing is secondary. We have been stockpiling various weapons and decommissioning them for decades without them being used, that's a good thing. But when you convince a population that attacking another country is good, the amount of weapons is secondary as there will always be a way to get more of them.

So a lot depends on who will ascend the Russian throne once Putin dies. If he is a warmonger, he will continue feeding the public with the "we need to kill the Nazi" rhetoric and continue killing Ukrainians. The weaker Ukraine is, the more likely this scenario is to become.