It's worth mentioning that Gateway is on the cutting block if the likely SLS cancellation happens during this incoming administration. As the entire reason for Gateway existing and being where it is is to act as a destination for SLS before the moon landing program was announced. It is where it is because of the relatively weak performance specifications of the SLS rocket preventing it from launching the Orion spacecraft into a low lunar orbit. SLS was also destined to launch several of the Gateway modules which would be impossible if its canceled.
One of the goals of gateway is to act as a test bed for long term manned operations outside of low earth orbit. I.e. start developing and proving the technology in flight that we are going to need for a mars mission.
It seems to me that if SLS goes… so does Gateway. That said, one thing to note: There are not that many stable lunar orbits. Unlike the earth, the moon is very lumpy. It is the reason why most lunar orbiters end up doing a planned crash as their end of (relatively) short life. From that standpoint, orbits that are a bit further out are much more appealing to have relatively low delta v requirements.
All that said, once Starship is regularly in use for lunar delivery… I suspect we will have a fundamental new paradigm for space.
"A space station" is desireable. The lunar gateway, though, as designed, is very much about Artemis. The Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit[1] was designated because of constraints on the Orion capsule that will be attached during crewed operations, at least this was relayed to me directly by NASA personnel during a Q&A.
Yes I could see deals being worked out where gateway partners instead build parts of a lunar base. The international partnerships a likely the biggest piece going for gateway in terms of not being cancelled
