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http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html is the best paper I've read about potential consequences of a nuclear war.

It estimates that a nuclear war in 1988 would have dropped world population from ~5 billion to ~3 billion (this includes estimates of death due to famine etc).

You can argue with each individual estimate, but it's hard to argue that a nuclear war would actually kill off the human race.

(As noted elsewhere, you can argue that it would be possible to kill off the human race if someone with control of a super-power nuclear arsenal tried to do it. That's a different argument, because you'd have to discuss the likelihood of that circumstance occurring)



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