It's hard to believe, I would think, because it would be such a remarkably positive development.
But just from a logical perspective it follows clearly from this data, and there's nothing fundamental about the situation that makes it particularly unlikely.
Of course it's quite possible that the LA data isn't really applicable for any number of reasons. But the idea that COVID will run through dense populations mercilessly, but quickly, and then sort of peter out is completely within the range of possible and non-shocking outcomes.
It's the natural outcome of an extremely communicable disease with a large prevalence of asymptomatic transmission and there's plenty of corroborating evidence for the idea that this is one of those.
It's also quite likely that the false-positive rate with this test is super high. Who knows.
But just from a logical perspective it follows clearly from this data, and there's nothing fundamental about the situation that makes it particularly unlikely.
Of course it's quite possible that the LA data isn't really applicable for any number of reasons. But the idea that COVID will run through dense populations mercilessly, but quickly, and then sort of peter out is completely within the range of possible and non-shocking outcomes.
It's the natural outcome of an extremely communicable disease with a large prevalence of asymptomatic transmission and there's plenty of corroborating evidence for the idea that this is one of those.
It's also quite likely that the false-positive rate with this test is super high. Who knows.