I grossly underestimated the value of a warm intro in Silicon Valley before getting here, and still did before I started working for a VC firm. Coming in as an entrepreneur from smaller startup ecosystems in Boston & Europe, I was a bit puzzled by it — it seemed like unnecessary decorum or just a cheap ploy by VCs to maintain their inbox zero streak. Beyond the a16z process explained by Mr. Andreessen here, I should note that any third-party intro (to say nothing of a warm intro) will drastically enhance your chances at almost any firm even if they don’t require it. It’s a sign of hustle, diligence & genuine interest from entrepreneurs, even if the person that introduces you isn’t particularly warm about you or friendly with the partner in question. You’d be surprised how many founders fail to display that hustle/diligence/interest in discussions with VCs!
I wouldn’t overthink the warm bit too much. Usually just by virtue of being willing to make the intro your contact will be warm and exude warmth. But I’ve also seen partner take intros from people they barely know/remember/trust if the pitch is compelling. Just make sure you stay connected to partners and potential connectors way ahead of time, and that they know you & your business. When the time comes, an intro will be a no-brainer.
> I should note that any third-party intro (to say nothing of a warm intro) will drastically enhance your chances at almost any firm even if they don’t require it. It’s a sign of hustle, diligence & genuine interest from entrepreneurs
The counterargument is that this attitude reinforces Silicon Valley as a non-meritocratic who-you-know culture instead of one that optimizes producing good products. (case in point, Andreessen's investment in Lucas Duplan/Clinkle)
Many founders can't get that kind of access, often due to class or other systemic factors. It's not "hustle," and in my opinion, that attitude is an albatross on the startup ecosystem.
Many seed-stage investors don't require introductions. For instance, most companies that YC funds were not introduced or previously known, they just submitted a compelling application.
By the time a company is ready for series-A (where Andreessen invests), companies normally have a connection to someone (investors, customers, lawyers) who can make an intro. See http://www.paulgraham.com/fr.html under "Get introductions to investors" for some tactics.
Angel investors have a huge incentive to find companies with good businesses but no VC connections, invest personally, and then introduce them to their VC contacts for further investment. (That huge incentive is a 10 - 1000x return on their investment). So there are quite a few people scouting for these opportunities.
But I'd be curious to hear about examples where this doesn't work.
I don't know where you came up with the "Many seed-stage investors don't require introductions" theory, but you're mistaken.
First, the example you use--YC--is not even seed stage. It's an incubator, and is one of the extremely few opportunities where "just submit a compelling application" works.
Also, this is not even about angel investing. All business deals involve human beings and people tend to trust people who came through an intro. It's the law of nature.
It's naive to think that angel investors are just clamoring to fund any random startup just because they have no connection to VCs. From my experience it's very rare to find investors who don't have herd mentality--nothing wrong with that, they're just being human.
YC is seed stage - they invest 120k. That's what seed stages have traditionally been. We just see so many $1-4 million "seed stage" investments nowadays that we're all used to it.
Not in the context of this thread. The main point of what OP said was YC doesn't require intro because you can get money by "just submitting a compelling application". I don't know of any serious seed investor who operate this way. This model works because YC is an incubator. That's their shtick and it works for them. But most angel investors can't do that. That's why they rely on humans
"Not in the context of this thread" isn't a good excuse. They are the exception to the context of this thread. 120k is very much an angel-like investment.
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but weren't some stats released a while back that said that 50% of the startups accepted by YC had been referred to them by the YC alumni network?
I've seen this in other areas too. For instance, banking recruiting at top schools has this crazy process of facetime and attending dinners, and showing up to lots of events. Does it correlate with success? Possibly, but weak at best. But the banks need some kind of first filter.
It's virtually impossible for a VC to take every proposal seriously. They need some kind of filter, and anything marginally better than "Read every tenth one that comes in" helps them out. Getting it via someone establishes reciprocity with the intermediary, and establishes that someone can find an intro. (This could be useful in selling)
I'm in Montreal, Canada, and could probably get a warm intro to Silicon Valley investors.
I grew up in a small Canadian province, and my parents were middle class public servants. That's more privilege than some have, but it's hardly Ivy League and prep schools.
I made connections by starting a business in Montreal and talking to other entrepreneurs. Eventually I met some who are 1-2 degrees away from Silicon Valley.
I don't need investment for the work I do, but if I did I could try harder with my current network and make closer connections.
There were zero entrepreneurs in my family. Though, one thing I'll grant is that Silicon Valley is probably a bad place to try things and meet people for a few years. Too expensive. Montreal is cheap.
That is not a good example of VC access since a) Andreessen quit Twitter a month ago and b) Andreessen is so infamous for blocking people on Twitter for having dissenting opinions that it was a meme. (http://money.cnn.com/2015/12/23/technology/marc-andreessen-b...)
Fair enough. My exchange with him on twitter was minor and over a year ago. Other VCs are on twitter, as are people in their networks. I think that it is inauthentic to claim that there is no access to VC. You could reach them from the South Pole or anyplace that can get mobile data.
The tough part is to stand out, not to get 5 seconds of time. in the video he says that they fund 20 out of 2000 warm introductions, and probably 20,000 cold ones.
This challenge applies to all entrepreneurs though, those in San Jose and the South Pole. Only 20 will get chosen.
You can still hustle from the edges inward, you just have to be a bit more creative about it. I probably can't hit up Marc directly but I bet I could find people who know him well enough to provide an intro but who aren't so well known themselves that they would ignore a cold call/email from me. Any firm you want to pitch has associates, secretaries, IT people, lawyers, and somebody who waters the plants, all of whom are there every day interacting with everybody else. It's a hustle-filter, not foolproof, not perfect, but efficient enough.
> The counterargument is that this attitude reinforces Silicon Valley as a non-meritocratic who-you-know culture
Which largely manifests itself on the latter half of an investment cycle (i.e. now), and is less visible during the former when capital is constrained.
>non-meritocratic who-you-know culture instead of one that optimizes producing good products. [...]
To me, the "who-you-know" is not that difficult a bar. It's just basically playing the game of 6-degrees-of-Kevin-Bacon[1] in real life. The comments from tlb and nugget are ideas of how to do this.
It does not mean you had to be one of Marc's classmates at the University of Illinois.
>Many founders can't get that kind of access, often due to class or other systemic factors.
I think this can be a point of good discussion. Can you list some of those impossible obstacles to networking into people like Marc? Which class of programmers writing apps for the internet or the mobile space can't get access to SV VCs?
It's rather ironic that many of the most famous people in the VC industry actually publish their email addresses [1], and then those same people will refuse any deal that comes to them this way. It's almost as if these addresses are there to perpetuate the myth that Silicon Valley is open to all comers as long as they've made something great, when the reality is that it's only open to a tiny sliver of entrepreneurs with great networking skills and/or those that are Stanford students/alumni.
Another way of thinking about the warm-intro suggestion is that most investors are overwhelmed with pitches and need a basic filter. Other expert humans are still the best filter they have. Which is kind of too bad, because all of those humans also face the same constraints on their time, network and expertise. While it may be far-fetched, it's interesting to think about how we might create a more automatic filter for startups that would surface those both of interest to the VC and with some chance of success, relying on self-reported data in Crunchbase and Angel List, biographical data about the founding team and its network, and maybe press and analyst reports about an industry.
I think it depends on the recipient. For example, I'm a VC and I give ~0 weight to intros from people I don't know well.
I get a lot of emails like: "Hey, remember how we met once at a demo day in 2014? Well my friend is raising for her company... do you want to talk to her? The pitch deck is attached." When I read that, I decide what to do based on the pitch deck, not the intro from someone I don't know. If someone cold emailed me with the same deck, I think I'd make the same decision.
I tried to get interest in Silicon Valley for my project. I'm in NYS US.
I tried a lot of advice on how to contact VCs. All my efforts were a huge waste of time.
So, I got a lot of advice, about introductions, how to write a pitch deck, and more. As far as I can tell,
all of that advice was nonsense and,
for me, a big waste of time.
Sure, I could get an introduction from one of my Ph.D. dissertation advisers, past president of one of the world's best research universities with one of the most famous computer science departments. But I doubt that many or any VCs know this guy personally and in that case I would have insulted my former dissertation adviser, the VC, and myself -- no thanks.
Once I did get a warm introduction from the CIO of one of the world's most famous companies, very successful, and famous for a lot of use of technology. As far as I could tell, the warm introduction was, for the VC, just a throwaway. A waste
for the CIO, the VC, and me. Bummer.
Really, an introduction is the VC having others do part of the VCs work, and this should not be justified: E.g., some of the standard advice is to write a very short, general pitch deck, with only a few foils and only a few words per foil, with the only purpose being to get the VC interested enough to ask for more information. Well, if this is the purpose of the first contact, no way should I bother the president of a high end university or the CIO of a top company; instead, the VC can just glance at a few foils and words in a PDF file, type "Sounds good. I'm interested. Please send more." and hit Reply.
To be more clear on what VCs are not responding to, my project is to get the world's best solution, much better than anything else, for a problem that is pressing for nearly all users of the Internet, in the US and around the world. So, some back of the envelope arithmetic is
5 ads per Web page
10 pages per usage
$2 per 1000 ads displayed
2 * 10**9 usages per week
52 weeks a year
5 * 10 * 2 * 2 * 10**9 * 52 /
1000 = 10,400,000,000
dollars of revenue per year.
Status: Production quality software --
from carefully designed, highly
scalable software and
server farm architecture --
written and running with no known
problems, currently in alpha test.
All that information above has been essentially ignored by essentially every well known VC firm
in Silicon Valley.
So, if that doesn't work, what does?
Well, about all that is left is what is still promising but nearly never in the
advice. So, here is what is left:
Go ahead with the business. Go live.
Get publicity, users, and revenue.
Have significant traction growing
rapidly. Wait for the VCs to contact
you.
Of course, I'm a solo founder, CEO, CTO, CIO, Software VP, all of the development team, Server Farm and Network VP, ..., janitor. So, by the time my company has traction significant and growing rapidly, if the project will work at all, then
soon it should have plenty of revenue for rapid growth. If the growth
happens, then there will be plenty
of after tax earnings to make me
financially successful. That is,
the cost for me to run the server
farm will fall quicly to less than 1%
of revenue with 99+% of the revenue
pre-tax earnings.
One server from
less than $1000 in parts should
have the capacity to generate
$200,000+ a month in revenue.
For a solo founder, why then take
equity funding?
By the way, it's all safe for work,
legal, ethical, squeaky clean,
etc.
Still, essentially no one on Sand Hill
Road gives a sh_t.
Okay: They have
their ways of making money, and I
have mine. Apparently we have
nothing in common.
Lesson: I no longer place much value
on advice for how to contact VCs. Or,
if they are at all interested, then
they will contact you.
If there is
a mob of them on the front lawn
waving stacks of $1000 dollar bills
at you and screaming for you
to take the money, then maybe
open the door and otherwise
call the police to have them
run out of the neighborhood!
That is, if you are a solo
founder, then by the time they want
you, you won't want them.
So, what ARE the VCs looking for?
How about young, naive founders,
traction significant and growing
rapidly, no earnings, five founders,
all credit cards maxed out,
each founder with a
pregnant wife,
and eager to sign any
term sheet.
First off, I think you generated a lot of goodwill on HN with your previous technical answers such as your generous explanation of FedEx logistics.
With that thank-you out of the way, please take the following as constructive critique that's based only on the text as you wrote it rather than you as a person. When I read the following excerpt that you use when you discuss VCs here and other threads...
>the world's best solution, much better than anything else, for a problem that is pressing for nearly all users of the Internet,
>[...]
>So, what ARE the VCs looking for? How about [...] , each founder with a pregnant wife
... in the first part, it sounds like a "blowhard"[1] in the literal meaning of that word. The second part with caricatures is indicative of bitterness. Both attributes are radioactive to investors -- especially when there is no impressive revenue to offset the (perceived) unpleasant personality.
Like I said, maybe IRL you're such a inspiring and engaging businessman that any VC would love to spend 84+ board meetings with you. (7 years times 12 monthly meetings). Unfortunately, the tone of your writing gives off a different vibe.
>the world's best solution, much better
than anything else, for a problem that is
pressing for nearly all users of the
Internet,
Well, that's what I intend. I know quite
a lot about the field, area, space,
market I'm in, and, of course, my work,
and so far that statement appears correct.
That statement is supposed to be a simple,
clear, accurate statement about reality as
best I or anyone can see it now.
One way to evaluate that statement is just
to wait. If the statement is correct,
then I should have a company worth several
hundred billion dollars, but then VC
funding would be absurd. Maybe KKR or GS
could arrange an M&A, maybe the largest
ever. Or there could be one heck of an
IPO.
In the meanwhile, we have to make
estimates.
If a VC doubts that statement, then it's
time for them to ask questions. But a
solid answer won't be short so wasn't in
the initial contacts I made.
But an initial contact is not supposed to
have lots of detail but just be a start of
a conversation, mostly to answer the
questions the VCs have. There never was
even a start on such a conversation.
Gee, sometimes big things do happen:
E.g., the guy who first saw a good, cheap,
practical way to make pure aluminum from
the ore had to know he was onto something
really big, and he was, and should have
said so.
Full support would take some explanation
about metals, strength of materials,
corrosion, airplanes, fabrication, etc. so
would not be short.
My statement, "blowhard" or not, touches
on a central point for Sand Hill Road:
The only way they pay the rent, make
money, and make LPs happy is grand slam
home runs, that is, the really exceptional
successes. So, the VCs are forced to be
interested essentially only in the
exceptional. So, it should be appropriate
to discuss the exceptional, "blowhard" or
not.
If the VCs believe that the project would
look better limited to only 1 million
target users, then there should be a way
to arrange that! Is that really the
concern of the VCs who ignore my e-mail
and foil decks?
For why the VCs ignore my "blowhard"
statement, my best guess is that the VCs
are totally convinced, down to the center
of the cells at the center of their bone
marrow, that there is no way, none, zip,
zilch, and zero, for any human alive,
given that Einstein is not, ever early on
to predict a major success. Instead, all
anyone can do is look at early traction
and otherwise just hope for good luck.
So, discussing anything exceptional,
actually successful as desired, is just
counting on luck and, thus, absurd.
My reaction, sometimes included in what I
sent VCs, is that there is a long history
of projects done by the US DoD where from
the beginning, maybe just on the back of
an envelope, the goal was something
exceptional, the project passed good
peer-review, technical evaluation early
on, and the results were as intended, on
time, on budget, or nearly so. Examples:
The B-29, designed essentially just to fly
between Guam and Japan (IIRC, ballpark $6
billion). The Manhattan Project. The B-52
(with updates, still flying). The Boeing
707 -- quickly put the passenger
steamships out of business. The nuclear
submarines. The missile firing nuclear
submarines. The SR-71. GPS. The F-117
stealth fighters that flew over Baghdad in
Gulf War I. I started my career in US DoD
work around DC and saw such things.
My Ph.D. dissertation? I cooked it up on
an airplane flight with a summary on one
page. It worked just as planned -- the
math, the software, the solution to the
real problem.
For my
> So, what ARE the VCs looking for?
Sure, since I tried all the advice and
everything else I could think of, that is
just the crucial remaining question. My
guess at an answer is what explained and
what I'm trying to contribute here.
My remark about the pregnant wives, etc.
was to exaggerate to make what appears to
be an important point: VCs want dependent
entrepreneurs. Or, the relationship
between the founders and the VCs is a
power struggle where the more power one
has, the more money they end up with.
> The second part with caricatures is
indicative of bitterness.
Not "bitterness" -- I'm not pissed. "This
is away beyond pissed." I got a lot of
advice; read lots of VC Web sites on what
they wanted; it was all a huge waste of
time.
> Both attributes are radioactive to
investors
Some of what I sent some VCs had something
like
>the world's best solution, much better
than anything else, for a problem that is
pressing for nearly all users of the
Internet,
but not all. Whether such was included or
not made no difference.
In what I sent, there was no indication of
"bitterness".
> when there is no impressive revenue
And THAT'S my core point: What the VCs
are looking for is traction, better
still, revenue, better still, impressive
revenue with an impressive growth rate,
better still, earnings, then impressive
earnings.
Fine. That's what I'm looking for, too.
And when I get there, I won't need their
equity funding and won't want their equity
funding because I won't want what is in
their term sheet and won't want to report
to a BoD.
Apparently this was the same for the
founder of Plenty of Fish -- IIRC, he
remained sole owner and finally sold out
for about $550 million. No VCs involved.
I've got 100,000 lines of typing for my
software, all running, and apparently
enough for going live and getting to nice
earnings. That and the rest of the work
and planning look, in expected value given
the features of the project, valuable to
me.
Okay, but now we are getting somewhere,
starting to understand: Even for a seed
round, they want traction. Okay, that's
their way of doing business.
I wish, very much wish, I'd just the heck
actually KNOWN that. I would have saved a
LOT of time.
Apparently there are plenty of deals for
VCs to make their way. And occasionally
Lady Luck smiles and they get a big win,
one that makes the LPs happy.
But for me, as a solo founder, by the time
they want to write me a check, I will no
longer want, need, or be willing to accept
it.
That's the lesson I came to and here am
trying to suggest to other entrepreneurs
on HN.
> Unfortunately, the tone of your writing
gives off a different vibe.
Of course, here, it does. But this is not
intended to be a pitch to a VC, and what I
sent them, in several hundred e-mail
messages, had nothing objectionable,
offensive, etc.
Or, the VCs want traction. Everything
else and a dime won't cover a 10 cent cup
of coffee.
Exercise: Find such a statement on a seed
and/or series A VC Web site.
I completely commiserate with you. It is hard to have a good idea and not be able to get it attention. However, after trying to actually pitch an idea in person, I learned that I wasn't nearly as prepared as I thought I was. Seeing your product through the eyes of someone who is not emotionally invested in it (or you), and whose job (or money) depends on vetting you and your product, is very enlightening (and a bit heartbreaking).
As for the clarification on your idea, this audience (and investors) would expect to see much more than that. After reading what you wrote, all I can tell is that it's related to online advertising, but I'm not clear on what specific problem you're addressing, how your product will make money, or how your product will compete and gain marketshare in a crowded market of entrenched (and capital-rich) competitors.
I say this with the intention of being helpful, not to tear you down. And I'm just a guy who reads HN, not an insider of anything.
> However, after trying to actually pitch
an idea in person, I learned that I wasn't
nearly as prepared as I thought I was.
After several hundred e-mail messages
sent, I never pitched a VC. But I've done
lots of successful pitches elsewhere,
academics, technical work, in business.
As an undergrad math major, I got Kelley,
'General Topology', read it, and gave
lectures to a prof -- so, I had practice
lecturing. I've done lots of college and
grad school teaching. E.g., in a software
house, I corrected some engineers of our
customer, found what they really needed in
power spectral estimation, pitched it, and
converted the competitive bid situation to
sole source. E.g., I passed my oral
dissertation defense for my Ph.D. For a
Ph.D. qualifying exam, I took an oral and
got a High Pass. Once I gave a talk in AI
and got a big room of people all excited
and, then, invited to give more pitches.
I presented an AI paper at a Stanford AAAI
IAAI conference -- seemed to go well
enough.
So, my presentation abilities should be
good enough for VCs.
> As for the clarification on your idea,
this audience (and investors) would expect
to see much more than that.
Here I was just being really short, just
to say that it's not supposed to be a
trivial project, just for here. Actually,
I rarely mentioned all that arithmetic
and, instead, kept things qualitative.
All the e-mail messages and foil decks I
sent had more on the nature of the
project.
In part I omitted that stuff here because
I'm just commenting on the subject of
contacting VCs and not trying to pitch
any VC readers of HN. I'm not including a
sample VC pitch here. I'm not trying to
use HN to pitch VCs.
As I mentioned, some of the advice I got
was to keep the number of foils to a few
and have only a few words per foil and use
the pitch deck just as a way to get past
the VC's first filter and have them ask
for more. Okay, I did that, lots of
times. Didn't work at all well.
Other times I wrote much more, as foils,
just as e-mail, as both, etc. No
difference.
> After reading what you wrote, all I can
tell is that it's related to online
advertising, but I'm not clear on what
specific problem you're addressing, how
your product will make money, or how your
product will compete and gain marketshare
in a crowded market of entrenched (and
capital-rich) competitors.
Right. In what I sent the VCs, I always
covered much of what you mentioned. Some
of what you mentioned seemed too difficult
-- e.g., competition -- to cover at all
well, without raising more questions than I
was answering, so I left it for later.
Their wasn't any "later".
Again, my post here wasn't like any of my
pitch decks or e-mail descriptions. I
told the VCs from more, say, in 6-8 foils,
to a lot more -- made no difference.
> I say this with the intention of being
helpful, not to tear you down. And I'm
just a guy who reads HN, not an insider of
anything.
Yes. Thanks. And here I'm just trying to
get back to some reality on how VCs react
to e-mail, foil decks, and introductions.
In particular I suggest that entrepreneurs
basically ignore all the advice on how to
contact VCs and especially ignore all the
stuff on VC Web sites and, instead, look
for what the heck the VCs really want.
For what they really want, I gave my best
guess.
Or more simply, I don't think that the VCs
give even a weak little hollow hoot about
anything but, to boil it down to one word,
traction, significant and growing
rapidly. For the rest -- founder's
background, team, technology, code
architecture, code, intellectual property,
scalability, barriers against competitors
-- they don't care. Size of the market?
If it's small, then the VCs will have M&A
exit in mind. If large, IPO exit dreams
in mind. For first funding, they don't
care.
Net, I wasted a LOT of time trying the
advice on how to contact VCs, the best
ideas I could think of, tried darned near
everything -- just a total waste of time.
Hence, here I'm suggesting that other
entrepreneurs don't do that.
> If you don't have users, you don't have
a company.
Right. But it's tough to find any such
statement on the Web site of a seed or
series A VC.
If they want me to have users, then they
want me to have revenue. For that I need
to get my first server built, running, and
live on the Internet. And once I have
that, I can just get the publicity and
mostly otherwise see if people like the
site without any equity funding.
If the users do like the site and the
usage grows, by the time that first server
is fully busy, I will have ballpark
$200,000 a month in revenue with less than
1% of that as expenses and 99+% of it as
pre-tax earnings. Then since I'm a solo
founder and 100% owner, why should I
consider equity funding?
Or, by the time they want to write me a
check, I won't need it.
> Or your $10bn/year metric is non-sense.
Not at all. Planning is important, and
that's how the planning works out. Sure,
there is the assumption that people like
the site. But the site itself is not much
of a question since the software is
essentially ready for quite serious
production.
If the VCs want to wait until the $10
billion is much easier to see, fine for
them. Then they can offer to write me a
series A check for $5 million for 1/3rd of
my company? Gee, thanks, guys, your $5
million is about 5 hours of my revenue,
nearly all of which is pre-tax earnings.
> I see 0 ads per session because I use an
ad blocker.
If that gets to be a problem, then I will
send the ads from my server and not have
my Web pages get the ads from ad servers;
besides part of my work is some unique and
especially effective ad targeting where it
will be easier for me just to send the ads
from my server farm; ad blockers will,
then, have to tell the difference between
Web page images that are ads and ones that
are content, both coming from the same
domain name. Lot's of luck, there, guys!
> What exactly is the pressing problem
you're solving?
I told the VCs. None of them gave a sh_t.
My intention here is not to pitch VCs.
Instead, I'm just trying to give other
entrepreneurs the benefit of the painful,
wasteful lessons I learned: In shortest
terms, just pick a project you can do from
your own checkbook, build that business,
wait for the VCs to call you, and, then,
see if you are still willing to accept
their check. Likely you won't be.
As a preliminary note, Silicon Valley,
Marc, and the entrepreneurs are all
looking for things that are exceptionally
good.
Then:
"Professional CEO".
What Marc describes is an SVP Marketing or
at best a COO.
Marc lists as the tasks of a CEO as
marketing, sales, finance, recruiting,
etc. Nope: For each of those there is a
VP, SVP, etc. Over them all is maybe a
COO. The CEO is none of those things.
Sorry, Marc.
The problem with his professional CEO as
the actual CEO instead of the founder is
that the pro CEO doesn't have a good
understanding of the vision for the future
of the industry or the company and is not
able to evaluate technical projects within
the company or evaluate and hire technical
people or leaders. So, the pro CEO is
basically and at best one trying to SELL,
SELL, SELL the EXISTING product/service.
So, right rush out and sell 300 bps dial
up modems, and keep growing to 9600 bps
but forget about coaxial cable modems,
wireless, and fiber.
Marc wants the CEO to be a cracker jack
buggy whip salesman, buggy whip production
manager, buggy whip sales channel expert,
etc. when Henry Ford is bringing out the
Model T. Bummer.
Marc mentions Tom Watson, Jr. who one day,
when IBM was still with punched cards and
electro mechanical equipment, mentioned to
his father (IIRC): "There's a guy at
Columbia. I don't know what he's doing,
but he's doing it 200,000 times a second."
Well, Tom, Jr. should have been much
farther ahead on that theme. Being behind
that way is part of why IBM had to play
desperate catchup with System 360 and
still missed out on a lot that Burroughs,
DEC, etc. had. And soon IBM was just
blind to what was in Multics, DEC VAX, the
future of x86, etc.
IBM VM? First done at IBM Cambridge
Research Center as CP67/CMS just as a
means of time-sharing operating system
development. The real power of VM was
missed for a long time.
IBM was awash in people ready, willing,
able, and eager to do great things for IBM
in operating systems, system security,
file systems, programming languages, etc.
-- at one time one such person lamented
"Three times in my career I tried to
help IBM in operating systems, and three
times I broke my pick trying.". Bummer.
Marc has general partners "who have been
through the struggle". Well, that's like
having a lot of steam engine experts at
the beginning of electric motors.
In fact, the nature of "the struggle" is
changing. To do well seeing what's new,
Marc is looking in the wrong place.
There are better places to look: E.g., in
1940, the US military was really smart and
didn't plan the new
weapons by talking to people who had "been
through the struggle" in WWI with
artillery, battleships, and biplanes.
Instead, what was crucial was Reynold's
number in fluid flow (the reason we got
rid of biplanes), radar, radio, high
resolution cameras, sonar, monoplanes, the
proximity fuse, torpedoes, computers,
super charged engines, aluminum in
airplanes, encryption, code breaking, and
the A-bomb. Nearly all of that was from
people with more fundamental backgrounds
than having been "through the struggle" of
WWI.
Marc needs people with more fundamental
backgrounds.
Marc talks about "the shit", just "all the
stuff that happens". Well, in poorly
planned and run projects, yes. But, J.
Oppenheimer got the A-bomb ready on time,
about as soon as Nimitz, MacArthur, and
Boeing had Guam and the B-29 ready. A
well planned and run project has a lot
less "shit". Admiral Rickover did the
same with the US nuclear submarines. The
US Navy did the same with their version of
GPS, some years before GPS. Similarly for
Keyhole -- before the Hubble, essentially
a Hubble but aimed at the earth. Lockheed
did the same with the SR-71 -- Mach 3,
80,000 feet, 2000 mile range, never shot
down. Etc.
Marc has seen a lot of "shit" because he
has seen a lot of poorly planned and run
projects because he doesn't know where to
look for good projects.
Marc mentioned that his firm has a big
"matrix" that helps a new CEO with
selling, buying, funding, recruiting, etc.
Okay. At times that might help.
But, take recruiting: The whole goal of a
VC funded company is to be exceptional.
Well, I question if Marc's firm is able to
select the needed exceptional people, and
later in the interview there is good
evidence that he can't.
I have to move on. But, in short, to me,
the worst thing Marc said was on how a CEO
should evaluate VCs and engineers: Marc's
main technique was recommendations.
Wrong. Badly wrong. Here Marc is asking
the CEO of hopefully a very exceptional
company to draw from the knowledge of the
general environment instead of using his
own exceptionally good abilities, which
necessarily we hope he has, to make much
better, exceptionally good, decisions
himself.
Similarly Marc is impressed by computer
science, AI, and ML. Nope.
For the needed exceptional companies in
information technology, f'get about
computer science: Instead look more
broadly in the QA section of the library,
especially at selected topics in pure and
applied math. There will see AI/ML as
mostly special cases of statistics which
is a special case of applied math which is
a special case of pure math. Better to
look at pure/applied math and mathematical
statistics.
I think you're being a bit tough at times but you definitely hit a vein.
It's always funny when VCs give a talk like this because they will invariable mention how they are down-to-earth ("been through the struggle") and how modern they are, when the truth is that they are anything but.
Warm introduction? Really? Is this straight from an episode of Mad Men? They know very well that they could hire one or two people to take decks from cold sources and run a preliminary review. They don't do that because they want to perpetuate the system. It's an "old boys network" and there's a real effort made to keep it that way. Let me repeat that, the reason they will never get rid of the warm intro is that it's all about perpetuating the old boys network.
Peter Thiel, when speaking to Stanford students, talked about vetting and said, without irony, that coming from Stanford gives you that vetted quality and that (IIRC)"you can give some song-and-dance about how your parents didn't have enough money so you had to go to UC Berkeley, but we all know that's not going to work." (Which is funny because my old roommate who went to UC Berkeley was mentioned in Perlmutter's 2011 Nobel speech; I wonder if he knows that he doesn't rate.) The difference between Cal and Stanford is about money and the perpetuation of wealth across generations, and that's also what we're talking about here: an old boys network.
Professional CEO = crony. Nothing else. The tragic part of all of this is that there is serious innovation waiting to happen and the system that could support and enable it is instead too busy preserving and extending antiquated systems of power and wealth.
Yup. The pro CEO totally owes his job and even his career, house mortgage, the mother in law addition, the in ground back yard pool, the kids' college tuition, new family SUV, wife's happiness, the family vacation home, his retirement, his good medical plan and dental plan, his airline travel card, his company car, country club membership, the respect of his circle of friends, etc. to the VCs.
Then the BoD and CEO can agree on this and that and send the whole founding team out without even their shirts. The founding team can sue, but without even their shirts and against the money and power of the great company they built, they don't have a chance.
So, we're talking CEO loyalty to the BoD, sit, lie down, roll over, stand, heel, etc.
The VCs with the BoD are in a power struggle with the founders, and the ones with more power get more money; the one with enough power can get ALL the money.
I omitted, the people I could get a "warm introduction" from are so high up in business and academics that the Silicon Valley VCs don't know them. And the Silicon Valley VCs don't know the people I know and couldn't get a warm introduction to me. E.g., in information technology, the people I respect and are able to respect me all have good appropriate Ph.D. degrees, usually pure/applied math, and nearly no Silicon Valley VCs do.
To put it bluntly, the Silicon Valley VCs are "too low class" for me! Really, I don't care and am willing to give tutorials to people with poor technical prerequisites for my work, but the VCs wanting "warm introductions" look too arrogant to me. Or, I'm not going to go to one of my Ph.D. dissertation advisers, since then a Dean at one famous university and President of another, and ask for a "warm introduction" to a VC that likely does not know him.
I wouldn’t overthink the warm bit too much. Usually just by virtue of being willing to make the intro your contact will be warm and exude warmth. But I’ve also seen partner take intros from people they barely know/remember/trust if the pitch is compelling. Just make sure you stay connected to partners and potential connectors way ahead of time, and that they know you & your business. When the time comes, an intro will be a no-brainer.